After surging through the first half of January, the U.S. dollar

 has softened against both developed and emerging-market rivals over the past few weeks, as currency traders come around to the idea that Trump’s threats for universal tariffs might simply be the opening salvo in a negotiation to wring economic and political concessions from other nations.

“It’s definitely a negotiating tactic,” said Brian Mulberry, a portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, about Trump’s tariff plans.

In other instances, the shift could be a sign that the speculative fervor ignited by Trump’s decisive victory has started to cool. Cryptocurrencies, one of the most successful Trump trades, have mostly moved sideways since the inauguration. The price of bitcoin

, the pioneering digital currency, has struggled to reclaim $100,000.

And popular “meme” tokens, like Trump’s own crypto

 and the infamous fartcoin, have fallen dramatically. On the campaign trail, Trump often spoke about plans to create a strategic bitcoin reserve. But so far, the administration hasn’t announced any plans to follow through.

Many U.S. stocks closely associated with the Trump trade have also struggled. Shares of Geo Group Inc.

, a private-prison company expected to benefit from mass deportations, have fallen about 25% since the inauguration. As of Friday, they were trading just shy of $27 a share.

Tesla Inc.

, which appeared to benefit from Chief Executive Elon Musk’s close association with Trump, has slumped since the start of 2025, while shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.

 have also turned lower recently.

But it isn’t just individual stocks: Broad U.S. stock indexes like the S&P 500

 have drifted aimlessly over the past three weeks. The index ultimately finished lower Friday after making a run at a fresh record high.

Three weeks without a new S&P 500 record high might not seem like a big deal. But there are signs that some investors are growing increasingly nervous.